Median Home Prices and Sales in the Peninsula

The San Jose Mercury News has a nice breakdown (below) of the median sales price and number of sales for each zip code in the Peninsula (Santa Clara County, San Mateo County, and Santa Cruz County). You can also see the percent change comparing this January to the same period in 2010.

In the Silicon Valley (Santa Clara County) the median sales price for all homes was $460,000, a 2% drop from the same period last year. But looking at resale homes, we saw a 1.9% increase to $529,000. Looking at number of home sales in the area, there were 1,424 sales for all homes, a drop of 10.9% from last year; in resales, 987 sold, which was 5.6% less than last year. We’ll soon see in the spring and summer months of 2011 if it picks back up, when the majority of sellers and buyers are on the market.

Overall, Los Gatos Los Altos zip code 94024 had the highest median sales price of $1,569,000, but Palo Alto/East Palo Alto zip code 94303 had the highest $/SqFt at $883. On the other side of the scale, San Jose zip code 95133 had the lowest median sales price at $230,000, and Gilroy zip code 95020 had the lowest $/SqFt at $195.



Bay Area Real Estate in the News: Foggy With a Chance of Sun

Photo Credit: James Sugar, National Geographic

DataQuick released their December 2010 monthly report for the Bay Area recently hitting the headlines with “Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying.” But amongst the headline there were also bits of sun hinting of more to come for Bay Area real estate.

Here’s what John Walsh, DataQuick president, said:

“While the dicey economy and employment concerns are major factors, tight mortgage credit is also a big issue right now, especially for the upper half of the market. There’s a lot of pent-up supply and demand out there, which will start to meet when the lenders re-open their spigots a turn or two,” he said.

Sales Volume Median Price
All Homes Dec-09 Dec-10 %Chng Dec-09 Dec-10 %Chng
Alameda 1,552 1,516 -2.3% $360,000 $347,000 -3.6%
Contra Costa 1,634 1,488 -8.9% $287,500 $265,000 -7.8%
Marin 265 226 -14.7% $635,000 $599,000 -5.7%
Napa 128 134 4.7% $356,000 $310,000 -12.9%
Santa Clara 1,915 1,646 -14.0% $475,000 $460,000 -3.2%
San Francisco 499 491 -1.6% $650,000 $617,000 -5.1%
San Mateo 642 616 -4.0% $586,500 $560,000 -4.5%
Solano 698 601 -13.9% $217,500 $198,000 -9.0%
Sonoma 495 460 -7.1% $330,000 $310,000 -6.1%
Bay Area 7,828 7,178 -8.3% $380,000 $375,000 -1.3%

Data includes single-family homes and condos. Source: MDA DataQuick


Silicon Valley Housing Market Trends – Fourth Quarter 2010 Update

Since the crash, the Silicon Valley has recovered faster than the nation on average. Narrowing the range to our four comparison cities – Los Altos, Mountain View, Palo Alto, and Sunnyvale – we have an above average group even against Santa Clara County (see graph below).

Experts at DataQuick, an independent real estate analysis company, report that the median sales price and home sales have fallen in the Bay Area from a year ago. The same is true in our example cities. But in a post-crash economy the most important factor real estate professionals, buyers, and sellers are looking for is a stable market.

Prices in our four cities have remained stable, yet deprecated, for the past two years. What will really excite the housing market is a return of high-cost homes and increased buyer confidence found in areas such as gains in employment and relaxed credit standards from banks. While some have seen this as an opportunity to find a house for less, most of the market is collectively holding its breath.

So with anticipation of what 2011 brings, lets review how 2010 was for our four real estate cities.

(Single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)

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Palo Alto Housing Market – Fourth Quarter 2010 Update

Palo Alto 4th Quarter 2010 3rd Quarter 2010 2nd Quarter 2010 1st Quarter 2010
Median Sales Price $1,315,000 $1,385,000 (-5%) $1,468,000 (-10%) $1,436,785 (-9%)
Average Days on Market 45 35 (+29%) 36 (+25%) 65 (-31%)
Closed Sales 124 119 (+4%) 123 (+1%) 72 (+72%)
Sales Price to List Price Ratio 100.86% 101.26% (-0.4%) 99.91% (+1%) 98.33% (+2%)
Total Sales Volume $174,393,860 $183,524,813 (-5%) $205,188,388 (-15%) $112,621,878 (+54%)

(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)

Palo Alto, the feather in the cap of Silicon Valley real estate, struggled with its median sales price, falling two straight quarters after reaching its peak in second quarter of this year since the housing bust. The fourth quarter of 2010 was lower than the same period in 2008 ($1,350,000) and in 2009 ($1,370,000). This is due to two factors: the real estate market adjusting to pre-bubble prices, and fewer expensive properties being listed because of the deprecated values.

On the positive side, sales are up overall, beating all previous quarters this year and the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009. The sales price to list price ratio is also one of the most balanced of our four city comparison, and with a ratio just above 100%, the only one favoring the seller.


Los Altos Housing Market – Fourth Quarter 2010 Update

Los Altos 4th Quarter 2010 3rd Quarter 2010 2nd Quarter 2010 1st Quarter 2010
Median Sales Price $1,605,000 $1,565,000 (+3%) $1,500,000 (+7%) $1,521,500 (+5%)
Average Days on Market 65 47 (+38%) 41 (+59%) 73 (-11%)
Closed Sales 84 89 (-6%) 98 (-14%) 63 (+33%)
Sales Price to List Price Ratio 96.55% 96.96% (-0.4%) 98.21% (-2%) 97.29% (-0.8%)
Total Sales Volume $145,565,939 $152,004,369 (-4%) $160,352,888 (-9%) $104,288,315 (+40%)

(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)

The high home prices of Los Altos influenced how it reacted to the 2007 bust, mainly a hold off of purchasing (only 38 homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2008) and a depreciation of the median sales price.

This past quarter, Los Altos is still struggling in its sales price to list price ratio, a result of many buyers unwilling to pay the full listing price. But this shouldn’t overshadow that this quarter the city put up the highest median sales price for the year. And compared to the same period in 2009, the median sales price is up 7% and days on market fell 8%, both good signs.

We can only anticipate what 2011 will be for real estate, but if Los Altos is any indication, higher-priced markets could be shaking off their frost a little sooner than the past few years.


Mountain View Housing Market – Fourth Quarter 2010 Update

Mountain View 4th Quarter 2010 3rd Quarter 2010 2nd Quarter 2010 1st Quarter 2010
Median Sales Price $917,500 $892,000 (+3%) $923,750 (-1%) $867,500 (+6%)
Average Days on Market 56 43 (+30%) 32 (+75%) 44 (+27%)
Closed Sales 78 73 (+7%) 102 (-23%) 46 (+70%)
Sales Price to List Price Ratio 98.01% 99.94% (-2%) 100.13% (-2%) 100.61% (-3%)
Total Sales Volume $75,824,589 $70,393,425 (+8%) $98,503,321 (-23%) $41,693,400 (+82%)

(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)

Mountain View has been an example of what many buyers and sellers would hope to see in their local market after the housing bust. The city fell, but not as hard as its neighbors, and recovered immediately into a slow rise that continued throughout 2010.

Its weak points this quarter were in average days on market (still better compared to 2009, with 61 days) and a sales price to list price ratio that favors buyers. The median price rose in the fourth quarter, and aligns with the more popular spring and summer months, including besting the same period in 2009 by more than $10,000.


Sunnyvale Housing Market – Fourth Quarter 2010 Update

Sunnyvale 4th Quarter 2010 3rd Quarter 2010 2nd Quarter 2010 1st Quarter 2010
Median Sales Price $716,000 $805,000 (-11%) $851,000 (-16%) $755,000 (-5%)
Average Days on Market 54 41 (+32%) 43 (+26%) 43 (+26%)
Closed Sales 124 169 (-27%) 177 (-30%) 96 (+29%)
Sales Price to List Price Ratio 99.46% 99.23% (+0.2%) 100.95% (-1%) 100.33% (-0.9%)
Total Sales Volume $85,140,559 $131,321,631 (-35%) $144,291,235 (-41%) $69,693,461 (+22%)

(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)

The winter months are rolling through the fourth quarter of 2010, and home sales have sunk along with the median sales price and average days on market. This is no surprise and remains a truth that there are seasons in real estate, and we can expect it to stiffen as we enter the first quarter of 2011.

Comparing the fourth quarter of 2010 to the same period in 2008 (closed sales, 90; average days on market, 47; median sales price, $656,500) and in 2009 (closed sales, 141; average days on market, 52; median sales price, $760,000), Sunnyvale is wavering but not falling into a double dip market that bearish experts are predicting.


What to Expect When Buying or Selling During the Winter Months

Data from MLS listings, Inc.

From the graph above, even though the real estate market has been a mess these few past years, it’s easy to see new listing and buying trends: lots of new listings in March followed by peak selling a couple months later, then a dramatic drop in everything around November. (Check out our prior post going more in-depth on market cycles.) Off hand there’s a couple good reasons for this. Though it may not be as pronounced here in the Silicon Valley, cold and rainy weather play a role in how attractive a property looks and keeping it presentable for potential buyers. Also it’s the holidays, when many people are with families or travelling. Lastly, it’s harder for families to move once school starts for their children.

So what do those remaining buyers and sellers see in the winter months?

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Mountain View Whisman School District Tour – Looking Deeper than API Scores

At the end of October, four of our real estate agents from Rainmaker Properties went on the Mountain View Whisman School District “Get on the bus tour” to learn more about what the local schools offer besides strong API (Academic Performance Index) scores.

Homebuyers, along with real estate agents, tend to put a strong bias on high API scores, especially since good schools can translate into better priced homes. But in cities like Mountain View, where the majority of the school district is either at the state API goal of 800 or above, we can start to consider other factors in the makeup of a school to see if it is the best fit for a child.

Read on to find out what our agents discovered on the tour and some of their insights. At the end we have tables showing all the API scores from elementary to high school in Mountain View, including school ranking and subgroup scores.

Christine Ko on the tour and the Mountain View Education Foundation (MVEF)
Edmund Yue and James Yang on looking past API scores
Kristine Suh, a parent, on deciding which school was right for her children
2010 API scores for Mountain View elementary schools
2010 API scores for Mountain View middle and high schools

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Real Estate News Roundup: October 29th

Giants in the World Series

A shout out to The Orange and Black, living up to the name and making Texas look small.
Good luck this Saturday and Sunday:


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Silicon Valley Housing Market Trends – Third Quarter 2010 Update

For the 2010 third quarter housing market report we are going to look at quarterly graphs back to 2006, which should help us better understand where we are today in the Silicon Valley. After the crash in 2007, the best thing we can do is look how are we doing compared to the year before. Putting a long view on it spins it for the worst: Bay Area sales: a region on a tight rope; Bay Area September Home Sales Second-Lowest in 19 years.

Our four comparison cities — Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto, and Los Altos — have performed well in the last year. Here are some highlights that compare this quarter from the same period in 2009:

- Sunnyvale, Mountain View, and Palo Alto have improved their median sales price
- Average days on market dropped 30% or more in all four cities
- Palo Alto bumped above 100% in the sales price to listing price ratio for the first time since 2008
- Number of closed sales are up in Palo Alto and Los Altos, and down in Mountain View and Sunnyvale; Concurrently, the same is true for total sales volume.

So read on to get more information about the number of homes sold, median sales price, average days on market, and selling price to listing price ratio. All of our data comes from MLS listings inc. measuring single-family homes.

closed sales - 2010 Q3

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Palo Alto Housing Market – Third Quarter 2010 Update

Palo Alto 3rd Quarter 2010 2nd Quarter 2010 1st Quarter 2010 3rd Quarter 2009
Median Sales Price $1,385,000 $1,468,000 (-5.7%) $1,436,785 (-3.6%) $1,298,000 (+6.7%)
Average Days on Market 35 36 (-5.3%) 65 (-46.2% 57 (-38.6%)
Closed Sales 119 123 (-3.3%) 72 (+65.3%) 111 (+7.2%)
Sales Price to List Price Ratio 101.26% 99.91% (+1.4%) 98.33% (+3%) 96.81% (+4.6%)
Total Sales Volume $183,524,813 $205,188,388 (-10.6%) $112,621,878 (+63%) $157,372,155 (+16.6%)

(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)

Palo Alto really established itself this quarter as a market leader. Compared to the third quarter in 2009, Palo Alto has improved in all five measures. This quarter Palo Alto jumped its selling price to listing price ratio ahead of the other three cities in our comparison to 101.26%, turning it into a seller’s market. Though, what this means for future home prices or the market is anybody’s guess as we enter the winter quarter.

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