[ Strengths | Weaknesses | Opportunities | Threats ]
[ Recent Transactions | Neighborhood Transactions | Schools | Map ]
[ What's Available on Imperial Ave. in Cupertino | Other Notes ]

Strengths

1)  The schools.  People will go to great lengths and expense to secure entry into Cupertino’s education trifecta of Lincoln Elementary, Kennedy Middle and Monta Vista High.  With good reason given their international renown.  (As always, check school availability before making a purchasing decision.)

2)  The Imperial Ave. area is one of the least expensive neighborhoods in prestigious Monta Vista.  For families who want to move up into the Monta Vista area and gain access to its schools, this is one of the easiest entry points.

3)  The HOA has a low fee, particularly considering the value of these homes.  They do pay for the maintenance of the white picket fences that give this complex a middle-American theme.

4)  Access to 85 and 280 is trivially easy, with strong connecting access to 101.  Arguably walking distance to De Anza College.

Weaknesses

1)  The townhomes on Imperial Ave. on the same street as several auto body shops. 

2)  Aside from a courtyard, there is very little green space within or around the complex. 

3)  Many of the front-facing units overlook the nearby office complexes.  Inner townhomes might face the garages of others in the complex.  Many rear townhomes overlook a parking lot, which is separated from the complex by a wall.

4)  Train tracks run close by but ironically there isn’t access to public transportation by train or light rail in Cupertino.

5)  Most townhomes here on Imperial are relatively thin, with 2.5 or 3 levels depending on how you look at it.  Some units have oddly positioned fireplaces whose flues (and the walls enclosing them) block what would have been open space between levels. 

Opportunities

1)  Cupertino’s reputation for schools builds demand for its homes.  10182 Imperial Ave. (1795 sqft.) went in 2004 for $790,000 and a unit with the same configuration, 10192 Imperial Ave. went in June 2007 for $990,000: a difference of $200,000 or 25.3%.  See threat #1 below.

2)  Being the lowest cost entry point into an internationally-desirable school district gives these homes instant and immediate marketability.

3)  It seems strange that some developer hasn’t purchased the land occupied by the auto body shops, or several of the smaller homes in the neighborhood, for re-development.

4)  Nearby Blackberry Farm is planned to reopen in 2009.

Threats

1)  The reputation Cupertino has sometimes overshadows other opportunities.  For example, at the Expressions of Sunnyvale, 996 Alpine Terrace, Unit 5 (1895 sqft.) went in 2004 for $630,000 and in May 2007 for $802,000: a difference of $172,000 or 27.3%.

2)  People from out of town wouldn’t think this street had a one million dollar home, much less fifty-something.

3)  If the trifecta of schools became less-desirable for some reason, this neighborhood’s desirability also drop relative to others where there is less of a price premium.  However, Cupertino voters consistently choose policies that will protect their schools.  And if there were any erosion, it would take time. 

Recent Transactions

Address	Bed	Bath	Sq.Ft.	Close	Sale Price	HOA
10156 Imperial Ave	3	2.5	1709	10/3/07	pending	$180
10092 Imperial Ave	4	2.5	1892	7/6/07	$1,030,000	$180
10192 Imperial Ave	4	4	1795	6/6/07	$990,000	$180
10111 Imperial Ave	4	2.5	1845	2/14/07	$981,888	$180

Contact me for pictures and upgrade information

Neighborhood Recent Transactions

Schools and School District Information for Montebello Cupertino

Since school boundaries and availability may change based on enrollment needs and population shifts, it is always a good idea to check with the local school district (Cupertino Union School District, Fremont Union High School District) for the latest information.

1)  Abraham Lincoln Elementary (see ratings and parent opinions).

2)  John F. Kennedy Middle (see ratings and parent opinions).

3)  Monta Vista High (see ratings and parent opinions).

Map

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(c) Steve Leung for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

Recommended Reading:

• Download the Silicon Valley Home Buyers Book
• What People Think About Before Looking for a Home
• Not Overpaying When Buying a Home
• The Thought Process Behind Making an Offer on a Home
• Considering One HOA Versus Another
• Tools for Protecting Yourself During a Home Purchase

This is a popular complex in Cupertino and, during a traditionally busy summer, seven units (one currently pending) at the Montebello have been sold over the last three months.

Have a look at my complete notes on the Montebello Cupertino, or jump right to its:

[ Strengths | Weaknesses | Threats | Opportunities ]
[ Recent Transactions | Neighborhood Transactions | Schools | Location and Commute ]
[ Available Condominiums in the Montebello Cupertino ] 

People who have been going to the old location at 20830 Stevens Creek Blvd. may have also been greeted by a friendly local student who was handing out flyers redirecting people to Whole Foods in Campbell and Los Altos. 

The new location at 20955 Stevens Creek Blvd. has their "bread breaking" ceremony on August 22 at 8:45am.  Daily hours are normally 8am to 10pm.

And that doesn't account for the elite Monta Vista High School, as well as Lynbrook High School or Homestead High School (as part of the Fremont Union High School District shared with Sunnyvale and other cities) which all rate 10 out of 10 statewide as well.

The real estate in the Cupertino part of Silicon Valley commands a premium over other cities in the area.  The darker lines on the chart show what the median price of condos and townhomes, and single-family homes in Cupertino.  The faded lines show what the median home prices are in Santa Clara County as a whole. 

The difference between the two types of lines is the premium you pay in housing prices to live in Cupertino.  How much is that premium and how has it changed over the last decade?

Cupertino Home Prices Commanding Consistent Premiums

Steady state.  Or at least as steady as real estate gets in June.  Over the month of June in past five years, Cupertino home prices have remained above Santa Clara County prices, to the point where the premium has been consistent between 35% and 39%.  This is lower than the premiums commanded between 1998 and 2002 when single-family homes were over 50% — as high as 71% — more expensive than the median across Silicon Valley.

Too much of a premium and the local micro-climate bubbles relative to the area.  Cupertino was itself ahead of the curve in 1998 and again in 2000 with a local peak of $880,000 for a median home that year.  Since its last price decline in 2003, single-family homes in Cupertino have been tracking the aggregate median without much fluctuation.

Given the talk in the news about home market collapses around the country, many home buyers are risk averse, preferring to minimize the amount of their potential loss rather than maximize their potential gain.  A vast majority of people in this part of the Silicon Valley market cycle fall into this category. 

Demand for high-quality townhomes, condominiums and houses in Cupertino has not been completely met because of a strong decrease of 23% in homes available between June 2007 and last year.  Inventory is at levels not seen as low since June 2000, when it was at 72, and multiple offers on good properties are still common. 

For my clients who want the strongest schools for their children, Cupertino makes an equally strong case.  For my clients who want a solid foundation for their next home, Cupertino has steady indicators and foundation in education.  If these are factors you value, then it represents a comparatively safe decision in Silicon Valley.  There are places that aren't like that, and you can find one example at the end of this article about a neighborhood in San Mateo.

(c) Steve Leung for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

[The raw data about area home prices is supplied by the local MLS, RE InfoLink.  The analysis is my proprietary work.]

Recommended Reading:

• Determining Your Must-Haves When Buying a Home
• Emotions in Real Estate: From Fear to Elation
• The Yearly Cycles Behind the Silicon Valley Real Estate Market
• Investing in the Right Bay Area School District
• Download the Silicon Valley Home Buyers Book

Automated movie ticket pods are available in the lobby next to the escalator and you can also purchase tickets at the traditional AMC ticket booth or online.  (This is just a convenience link, I have no association with MovieTickets.com.)

The redesign of the former Vallco Mall is progressing steadily with the new facade built out for the theater along Wolfe Road and updated branding throughout the mall.

Flat and down.  Those are words you might not expect in the real estate market of a city with some of Silicon Valley's most renowned schools.  And it's a reputation Cupertino added to with three of its high schools, as part of the Fremont Union School District, earning the coveted California Distinguished School Award in 2007.  With good schools, come good real estate prices — so the saying goes.

It was definitely a red hot market in Cupertino for the past couple years.  In 2005, the average townhome/condominium stayed on the market for a "blink and you'll miss it" time of 9 days.  In 2006, the days-on-market (DOM) number "doubled" to 17.  This March, it was a relatively high 41.  (There are a lot of real estate agents around the country who would still envy that number.)

Looking at the chart, it's a fact that, relative to the Santa Clara County average, Cupertino townhome and condominium prices got ahead of themselves in 2006, right?  After all, that number was ahead of the average by 43%. 

Not exactly. 

What if I said that last year's market number isn't nearly as bad as it's been and the March 2007 number is a steal?

Cupertino Townhomes and Condos Are a Steal?

I mentioned Cupertino townhomes and condos as a bargain in my Silicon Valley Housing Market – April 2007 overview. 

Here's another way of looking at it: by measuring premiums.  In this case, the premium is how much the median price of a Cupertino home is above the Santa Clara County median price.  The fact is that the premium for a Cupertino condominium or townhome this year, at 23%, is the lowest it's been for all the years back that RE InfoLink has released data.

Looking at the chart, you can see the pattern where there's a spike and a dip every other year, almost in lock step.  I'm not making an attempt to predict the future, but using those same glasses people use for hindsight, it's not hard to see that there's a window for people looking to capitalize.

Cupertino Single-Family Home Premium Down

The premium for single-family homes in Cupertino is back down to 2003-2004 levels, but in reality, there's actually a very slight correction going on here even though the median home price went up from $1.12 million in 2006 to $1.14 million in 2007.  

Inventory stayed relatively steady at 65 vs. 69 a year ago in March and 161 in 2003 (at the end of the most recent price slide).  But the DOM number has been steadily increasing over the past three years from 21 to 33 to 42.  There would probably have been a fall-off in price but new listings have decreased for four years running (94 in March 2004, down to 53 in 2007).

Based on only pricing data — not the personal needs and wants my clients and I discuss — I'd advocate getting a townhome or condominium in Cupertino, but I have a more wait-and-see attitude towards single-family homes in the area… especially with the summer vacation for schools coming up. 

After all, in an area that relies heavily on the quality of its schools for its residents, the end of the school year may mean more pressure on properties that have been on the market for a while already. 

For my clients whose search is specific to Cupertino and isn't time-constrained, I'll usually add some of the weaker properties (which I think will hang around) to my property tours so that we can revisit them when the time is right.

With the Cupertino Square revitalization efforts in full-swing, there are going to be added entertainment and shopping options for Cupertino residents.  These things take time but they're definitely making forward progress.

(c) Steve Leung for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

Recommended Reading:

• Silicon Valley School System Bang-for-the-Buck
• Determining Your Must-Haves When Buying a Home
• Why the Perfect House Wasn't So Perfect
• Cupertino Home Inventory Search
• Emotions in Real Estate: From Fear to Elation

The California Department of Education (CDE) just released the recipients of its California Distinguished Schools award, which honors the "exemplary and inspiring" schools across the state. 

Typically only 5% of schools are awarded with the California Distinguished School title, which schools are allowed to use for four years — and in 2007, there were 21 Silicon Valley schools (11 from San Mateo County and 10 from Santa Clara County) that received the honor. 

Elementary and secondary schools are evaluated in alternating years and, this year, it was time for the middle and high schools to go under the microscope.

As frequent readers here know, I'm a big advocate of not only looking at real estate in established educational powerhouses, but also finding up-and-coming schools.  After all, schools power real estate demand — even if you don't have kids — and people looking for the "next big thing" in terms of appreciation need to look beyond what's already been priced into the market.

There were some big winners this year in Silicon Valley and this article kicks off a week of market analysis homing in on key cities in these school districts.  Here's a whirlwind tour.

Fremont Union High School District (South Bay)

Fremont Union primarily covers the Silicon Valley staples, Cupertino and Sunnyvale, but also includes areas of other Santa Clara County cities including Los Altos, Saratoga, and San Jose.

Three of Fremont Union's five high schools received the California Distinguished School award this year.  Monta Vista High School and Lynbrook High have both amassed five of the awards, while fellow 2007 winner, Cupertino High, has been named a California Distinguished School three times.

The Fremont Union High School District web site has a PDF map that shows the areas each school in the district covers. 

Sequoia Union High School District (Peninsula)

Sequoia Union covers a wide stretch of Silicon Valley and the Peninsula, serving the San Mateo County cities of Atherton, Belmont, East Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Redwood City, San Carlos, and Woodside.

Three of Sequoia Union's four comprehensive education high schools (Sequoia Union has one vocational high school) won this year.  And of the award winners, both Sequoia High School and Menlo-Atherton High School have won the award twice, while Carlmont High School has won the award three times.

The Sequoia Union High School District web site has a handy tool that lets you check what school any given address in the district feeds into. 

Up-and-Coming Schools

The Campbell Union High School District has two up-and-coming schools that are brand new winners this year, Del Mar and Branham High. 

And, further north in the San Mateo Union School District are two more first-time winners, Burlingame High and Hillsdale High.

I'll post the latest home values in the 1SiliconValley.com Housing Market section.

(c) Steve Leung for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

Recommended Reading:

• Silicon Valley School System Bang-for-the-Buck
• Silicon Valley Housing Market Information
• Not Overpaying When Buying a Home
• How a Win-Win Saved My Client $25,000

The Cupertino Chamber of Commerce is offering previews on Wednesday during its mixer from 5:30-7:00pm, with movies at 7:10.  Tickets are $5 and they're advertising free popcorn.

No, he'd been following some of the other visitors around the winery but he put on his full strut when he saw the gleam of my camera lens.  

Here he was: the side of Cupertino not many people get to see.  Hidden off the rugged Santa Cruz Mountains with Montebello Road carving its winding path, Cupertino is Silicon Valley wine country.  

The Ridge at the Top of the Mountain

The signs were everywhere and they weren't subtle.  This was also rattlesnake country and people were just visitors.  With a view that stretched well beyond Moffett Field and downtown San Jose, past the East Bay with clear skies, though, nothing else had my attention.  Here was the Ridge Vineyard and Winery, proper and formal, yet rustic in its nature.

The beautiful mountain.  The name of the Ridge Winery estate and the name of their flagship red, unsurprisingly, Monte Bello (with the space).  And in keeping with the traditions of great temptation, they will give you your first taste for free.  They welcome guests on weekends, but on weekdays with reservations only.

Down the Santa Cruz Mountains

Not to be forgotten are the Naumann and Fellom Ranch Vineyards.  Our story, though, continues with our fine feathered friend at the Picchetti Winery and the appropriately named Peacock Court.

Have you ever been flashed by poultry?  The two women just ahead had gotten out of their cars and were walking leisurely, up the path towards the farmhouse where Picchetti Winery holds its tastings.  Hidden behind the barrel marking the entryway and sensing his opportunity, he burst out from his cover, running towards the ladies and rearing himself — literally — in full glory.  The Pichetti sangiovese is good, but it's not what I'll remember from this winery.

Catch and Release

1935, the year before Turing Machines.  That's the year when the Stevens Creek Dam and Reservoir was constructed.  Some people pass this piece of history before entering Cupertino wine country.  You can't miss it: it's entire view on your left heading up to Montebello Road. 

Others come here to spend the afternoon sitting on the steep angular concrete wall that is the Stevens Creek Dam, with fishing rod in hand, enjoying the reflection of the sun off the water.  This is Cupertino too.  

(c) Steve Leung for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

Recommended Reading:

• A Sunset at Muir Beach
• One Lazy Saturday at Shoreline Park – Mountain View
• Walking Tour of Santana Row
• Silicon Valley Farmers Markets

Technorati Tags: Silicon Valley, Bay Area, Cupertino, Wine, Fishing

Going up?  Cupertino Square pulled the wraps off the construction they’re doing on the AMC theater set to open in April. 

Stairway to heaven?  Normally an escalator wouldn’t be that interesting, but in this case it’s the visual centerpiece of the Vallco revitalization.

The entire area had previously been cloistered away behind thick plastic wraps to keep the construction hidden and the corridor free from dust. 

While the Strike bowling alley is still several months away, the automated ticketing kiosks and the ticket booths are already up and new tiles leading to the theater are being installed.

People who usually find themselves going to other theaters near Cupertino like the Century San Jose 25 at Westgate Mall, AMC Saratoga 14, or the Century San Jose triplets will find these newer facilities more convenient.

(c) Steve Leung for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

Recommended Reading:

• Cupertino Housing Market Update – April 2007
• Cupertino Square Information
• Cupertino Home Inventory Search and Market Information
• Silicon Valley School System Bang-for-the-Buck
• Goodbye Vallco, Hello Cupertino Square
• Silicon Valley Shopping Information

We’ll take a look at how school rankings and Silicon Valley real estate prices are related, but first let’s look at how to read the information.

Number of Students. In the first column, you’ll find the number of students whose results were included from that school.  It’s pretty close to the total number of students, less any excluded students.  The rules for excluding students are listed in the API Base Documentation Information Guide found on the CDE API page.  Surprisingly, the number of students has little to do with how well the school did in its API scores (almost, see epilogue).

Base API, Statewide Rank, Similar Schools Rank. The Base API score is like an SAT score except it’s from 200 to 1000.  Higher is better.  To make comparing schools easier, the CDE provides a statewide rank from 1 to 10 (ten is best) and a similar schools rank that rates schools (again from 1 to 10, ten being best) that have similar demographics and characteristics.  Apples-to-apples in a way.

Growth Target, API Target. The growth target is the number of points California wants the school to improve in the next year.  That added with the current base API score equals the API target.  The CDE doesn’t set a target for schools above the current statewide performance target of 800.

Silicon Valley School District Scores

I’ve assembled information from the CDE site and the Palo Alto Daily News to provide a table of school district API averages for Silicon Valley and Bay Area elementary and middle schools.

Here are the API values for these Silicon Valley school districts:

Comparing School Districts and Housing Prices

Remember the chart of median Silicon Valley single-family home prices in February 2007 from my article Determining Your Must-Haves When Buying a House?

Combining the chart for Silicon Valley school district rankings with the one for Silicon Valley median single-family real estate prices brings up some surprises.  (I used a simple ratio between how far the API score was above 700 and the median single-family home price.  The resulting number isn’t really that relevant, it’s the visual comparison I was looking for.)

Regarding Schools and Value in Pricing

First, while Cupertino and Foster City housing prices are very similar, there is a vast difference between the performance index of their school districts.  On school rankings, compared to Foster City, Cupertino represents a much better value based on the median sale price of single-family homes.

Second, while Los Altos has the highest API scores, it also had a much higher median price putting it on-par with other elite school districts like Palo Alto and Los Gatos, but well-below Saratoga which had both higher test scores and a lower median home price.

Third, it is possible to cherry-pick good schools in average school districts.  For example,  you can search around Sunnyvale’s Cherry Chase Elementary, which has a base API score of 941, if you’re looking for a good elementary school.  Stay tuned.

(c) Alex H. Wang for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Blog at 1SiliconValley.com

Recommended Reading:

• Determining Your Must-Haves When Buying a House
• Silicon Valley School Information
• Mortgage Rates Are Low Without Exclamation Points
• Why the Perfect House Wasn’t So Perfect

[ed.  This is the CYA: The data in the report is considered accurate but not guaranteed.]

Epilogue

There’s a quirk in the ratings system where only test scores for “statistically significant” groups (read: ethnicities) are counted.  Some schools, none that I can find documentation on, were accused of reclassifying lesser performing students into groups that weren’t statistically significant to prop up their overall test scores.

There is a measure of transparency, though, because if you drill down on the individual schools, it will show which groups were counted, which weren’t, and how many were in each.