Market Updates Blog

Bay Area Real Estate Shifting to a Seller’s Market, U.S. Still Slipping

Bay Area home sales in August may have dropped to an 18-year low (an 11% decline from last year), but the median sales price rose 6.9% from August 2009, according to a report released by MDA DataQuick this September. And viewed with a wider lens, things have been steadily improving in the Bay Area:

Last month was the second in a row to post a month-to-month decline in the median, which so far this year has peaked at $410,000 in May and June. On a year-over-year basis, the Bay Area median has risen for 11 straight months, though before July those increases had been in the double digits – ranging from 10.6 percent to 31.0 percent – since last November.

	Sales Volume			Median Price
County	Aug-09	Aug-10	%Chng	Aug-09	Aug-10	%Chng
Alameda	1538	1351	-12.20%	$340,000	$360,000	5.90%
Contra Costa	1,587	1,397	-12.00%	$261,500	$278,000	6.30%
Marin	235	205	-12.80%	$713,000	$649,000	-9.00%
Napa	120	121	0.80%	$350,000	$354,000	1.10%
Santa Clara	1,736	1,556	-10.40%	$451,000	$480,250	6.50%
San Francisco	514	451	-12.30%	$635,000	$652,500	2.80%
San Mateo	606	591	-2.50%	$559,000	$610,000	9.10%
Solano	677	542	-19.90%	$200,500	$202,500	1.00%
Sonoma	505	484	-4.20%	$315,000	$332,000	5.40%
Bay Area	7,518	6,698	-10.90%	$360,000	$385,000	6.90%

_{Data includes single-family homes and condos. Source: MDA DataQuick}

Sep.30.2010 [ Filed under: Bay Area Real Estate, Market Updates, Silicon Valley News ] 2 Comments »

Where Are We Now? 2000 to 2010 Silicon Valley Real Estate Report

Real estate levels in 2010 appear to be either dropping or freezing nationwide during the usually active spring and summer months due to the wake of the 2007 housing crisis. But in Silicon Valley, where the characteristically warmer temperature seems to not only apply to the weather, the local real estate is making its way back from the extremes of a couple years ago.

So from 2000 to the second quarter of 2010, where is the Silicon Valley housing market now? Pretty much where we started. Number of closed sales for single-family homes in Santa Clara County during the second quarter of 2010 are down 4% from the same period in 2000; and the average sales price is up 3%.

This post is an update of an earlier market analysis that we did in 2007. And in the graphs below we’ll be able to see the dot-com bubble burst, the effects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the housing bubble develop and pop, and the current signs of a housing recovery. The data is collected from 2000 to the second quarter of 2010 from all 15 cities of Santa Clara County off of MLS listings Inc., looking at single-family homes and condominiums/townhouses.

Sep.17.2010 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Silicon Valley News ] Comment Here »

Silicon Valley Housing Market Trends – Second Quarter 2010 Update

In the second quarter of this year (April to June) we can really see which areas of the housing market have bounced back from the crisis and which areas are still struggling. To visualize those details, and to complement our second quarter 2010 analyses of Los Altos, Mountain View, Palo Alto, and Sunnyvale, we have created some city comparison graphs.

We’ll cover total sales volume, sale price to listing price ratio, days on market, median selling price, and number of homes sold, using data on single-family homes off of MLS listings Inc.

First, let’s have a look at:
_

Aug.12.2010 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Neighborhoods, Silicon Valley News ] 4 Comments »

Palo Alto Housing Market – Second Quarter 2010 Update

_{(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)}

Because Palo Alto has a wide range of home prices, the entry-level market remained strong as buyers looked for bargains and the high-end market slowly recovered through the second quarter of 2010.

The median sales price in Palo Alto is 5.3% lower than the same period in 2008, at $1,468,000. A huge jump of 82.2% from last quarter and just 5.5% lower than in 2008 was realized in total sales volume, at $205,188,388. Average days on market is just over a month and there were 123 sales this past quarter, similar to 2008.

Palo Alto holds its title as a premier housing market with the highest total sales volume of our four comparison cities, and will continue to become increasingly difficult for buyers to enter the market as the sales price to list price ratio continues its rise to 100%.

Aug.10.2010 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Palo Alto, Silicon Valley News ] 2 Comments »

Mountain View Housing Market – Second Quarter 2010 Update

_{(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)}

Mountain View serves as a good example in our four comparison cities to see that the strongest competition after the housing crisis is for entry- and mid-range homes.

The standout numbers this quarter for Mountain View are 102 closed sales, 121.7% more than last quarter and 50% more than 2008; and $98.5 million in total sales volume, 136.3% more than last quarter and 35.3% more than 2008.

Median sales prices and average days on market are creeping towards 2008 levels. The sales price to list price ratio is just above 100%, meaning seller and buyer perceptions are balanced, though slightly in favor of the seller.

Aug.10.2010 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Mountain View, Silicon Valley News ] Comment Here »

Los Altos Housing Market – Second Quarter 2010 Update

_{(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)}

Los Altos burned through the summer months of the second quarter this year as it showed strong signs towards a sustained housing market recovery.

The median sales price slipped 1.4% from the quarter before, to $1.5 million. But the exciting news for home sellers is the precipitous drop in average days on market to 41, from 73 the quarter before, and 98 closed sales, which is equivalent to the same quarter in 2008. The sales price to list price ratio is 98.21%, meaning that more and more buyers are paying closer to list price, reflecting a shift to balanced buyer and seller perceptions. Total sales volume is $160,352,888, which is 17.3% lower compared to the same period in 2008.

Overall, Los Altos realized the greatest drop in mean sales price of our four comparison cities and has yet to recover the nearly 13% difference in price from the same time period in 2008 — meaning home values are still depreciated in the area.

Aug.10.2010 [ Filed under: Los Altos, Market Updates, Silicon Valley News ] Comment Here »

Sunnyvale Housing Market – Second Quarter 2010 Update

_{(single-family home data from MLS listings Inc.)}

Sunnyvale is one of two cities in our comparison that has turned into a seller’s market the past two quarters. Perhaps it is the urgency of the buyers to find an entry-level house (Sunnyvale has the lowest median sales price of our four comparison cities) before the effects of the housing crisis completely recede that is driving demand.

The median sales price jumped 12.7% compared to last quarter, to $851,000. Average days on market remained the same as last quarter, while number of homes sold was just higher than the same period in 2008, at 177. Sales price to list price ratio is 100.95%, meaning most sellers are encountering multiple offers over listing price.

Although the median sales price and total sales volume are still lagging compared to 2008 numbers, Sunnyvale is reporting strong numbers in other areas this quarter, showing that the city has pushed out of its slump.

Aug.10.2010 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Silicon Valley News, Sunnyvale ] Comment Here »

Palo Alto Housing Market – First Quarter 2010 Update

^{(Downtown Palo Alto on University Avenue)}

Palo Alto is one of the premier real estate markets in California, but that doesn’t mean it was able to pass through the mortgage and housing crisis, just two years ago, without a scratch.

Like most of the Bay Area, Palo Alto home prices and inventory dipped following the crisis but are now showing signs of recovering.

Comparing first quarter results between 2008 and 2010, the number of single-family homes on the market went from 81 to 68, and the median sales price from $1.681 million to $1.518 million. First quarter results in 2009 were even lower, with 66 homes sold and a median sales price of $1.275 million.

Again, because of a location in the Silicon Valley, neighboring Stanford University and a top performing school district (news link), Palo Alto homes are some of the last to be hit by a recession and a bellwether out.

May.03.2010 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Neighborhoods, Palo Alto, Silicon Valley News ] 2 Comments »

Los Altos Housing Market – First Quarter 2010 Update

^{(Main Street in downtown Los Altos)}

Home buyers and sellers are quickly returning to Los Altos after a hesitant 2009 period. Los Altos is primarily a single-family home market as we can see in the first quarter of 2010 results, with 63 single-family homes and six condos sold. The average days on market was just about 60 days.

The median price of single-family homes sold in Los Altos this quarter was $1.47 million, which is slightly higher than the previous year’s first quarter results of $1.435 million.

The effects of the mortgage crisis in 2008 and late 2007 is more apparent when we see that only 32 single-family homes were sold in the first-quarter of 2009.

Los Altos has consistently held its home values, and even in a weak national market, home prices are beginning to rise as buyer confidence returns. Home sales were also strong through the traditionally slow winter months, and we are already seeing multiple offers on well priced homes again.

Apr.28.2010 [ Filed under: Bay Area Real Estate, Los Altos, Market Updates, Neighborhoods ] Comment Here »

Silicon Valley Housing – 2007 Year in Review

I hope you all had a great holiday season and New Years! Looking back, it seems that 2007 was the year of the mortgage for real estate here in Northern California. A screenshot from the New York Times mortgage rate chart illustrates how buyers (and sellers) were impacted by the dynamics of the mortgage industry this year.

This chart shows the change in jumbo mortgage interest rates during 2007. Put in historical context, the jumbo interest rates over the summer didn’t approach the level of rates in, say, 1981, but since 2002, the housing market has benefited from mortgage rates that are historically low.

It wasn’t 2005 or 2006, though. In May and July, some buyers discovered the home they were interested in just became about 5% more expensive at the same price because of another interest rate bump. (A $1,000,000 P&I mortgage costs $5,996 per month at 6% and $6,321 at 6.5%.) All the more reason to better understand how rate locks work.

Some homeowners with adjustable rates found themselves in a similar situation and ended up attempting a short sale. Many neighborhoods were unaffected, others were peppered with short sales — where the available homes may or may not have real estate signs indicating a sale.

But many of the markets around Silicon Valley didn’t behave like one would expect from reading the news reports. It’s the sales transaction information that tells the best story.

Dec.31.2007 [ Filed under: Market Updates, Silicon Valley News ] 2 Comments »

Redwood Shores Housing Market Update – November 2007

There’s an opportunity here for my clients looking for a good elementary school district. For single-family homes, the news is almost exactly the same as last year. There were six sales in 2006 and five this year in Redwood Shores. Small statistical sample.

The median number has dropped 7.8% year-over-year in October from $1,192,000 to $1,100,000; the average stayed almost the same going from $1,145,500 to $1,145,000, with eight new listings in both periods and an inventory of 14 and 13 in those respective years. The news, though, is in townhomes and condominiums.

In Redwood Shores, there were only three were closed in October 2007 (compared to 15 the year before) with inventory levels similar to 2005 and 2006. The percent of list received went from just above asking to 93.36% this year.

It’s sometimes difficult to be the first wave to adjust to a different landscape and changing market conditions, no matter how much data is available. In this case, the initial valuation of these three townhomes was unrealistic, so the percent of list received is lower than it might have been if information about the shifting landscape were already digested.

There are good elementary schools in Redwood Shores. Sandpiper Elementary, part of the Belmont-Redwood Shores Elementary School District, improved upon its elite test scores last year with a 17 point increase to 923. When I last called Sandpiper just after the start of the school year, they were on the border of being over-subscribed, but were still able to take new students.

Obviously, it’s important to confirm availability before making a purchasing decision. The Belmont-Redwood Shores district has two other schools over 900 API to choose from if there’s a wait list at Sandpiper (Central Elementary and Fox Elementary), and the others two come in at 875 (Cipriani Elementary) and 823 (Nesbit Elementary).

[ Median Home 2007, 2006 | Market Snapshot | How Much Home Can I Get? ]

Nov.07.2007 [ Filed under: Market Updates ] Comment Here »

Menlo Park Housing Market Update – October 2007

There’s an interesting opportunity in Menlo Park when you take into account that the city has multiple personalities. I want to illustrate this using the median home chart below and a couple facts. First, if you look at the homes that are available, there are just as many single-family houses available between $400K and $800K as there are between $1.5M and $2.5M.

Second, the ones at the low end of the range are closer to Redwood City and East Palo Alto, and use Redwood City and Ravenswood Elementary School Districts, respectively. The more expensive ones are closer to Atherton and Palo Alto and are part of the Menlo Park Elementary School District — and its 907 district API score — or the Las Lomitas Elementary School District — and its two schools with a 948 district API score.

So, with that in mind, the median value of homes in Menlo Park can be somewhat of a tug-of-war. For September 2007, there were two transactions for low-income housing which closed at about $330,000 each. If you threw those two out, the median single-family home in Menlo Park was $1,220,000. That’s a realistic 6% decrease year-over-year.

It’s important to look beyond what the numbers are and understand the story behind them. In this case, there’s been some softness in Menlo Park given increasing CDOM numbers, from 19 to 38 year-over-year. (The average CDOM over 10 years is 34.) But, from on the ground experience, there wasn’t anything to indicate a decrease as dramatic as the median value chart would indicate.