Shake, shake, shake. "Reply hazy, ask again," it says.
For people looking to buy a home in Silicon Valley, it's the age-old question: "What are interest rates going to do?" Especially since the difference between 6% and 6.25% on an $800,000 mortgage (30-year principal and interest) adds up to $129.34 per month. I'd rather see that money go towards things that make you happy than on some lender's bottom line.
Data compiled since April 1971 shows that interest rates are historically low right now. You don't need to take my word for that — the Federal Reserve does their own surveys.
The challenge is that predicting interest rates is something no one can do accurately. Global events such as the oil embargo in the 70s or 9/11 in 2001, which have a major impact on interest rates, can't be predicted with any certainty. That's why mortgage lenders treat money like the commodity it is: in essence, they price their products based on how expensive the money is for the period when they need to use it.
While there is no crystal ball for determining what rates are going to do today, tomorrow, next month or next year, I'll present some "back-of-the-envelope" ways to tell which way the wind is blowing when it comes time for you to buy a house in Silicon Valley.
Be forewarned, this article is a lot more esoteric than usual and given the unpredictable nature of interest rates, needs to be disclaimed more than usual too!
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Apr.16.2007 [
Filed under: Mortgages ]
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